|
Name: Shawn Harris
Focus of internship:
Impact of inflation and rising commodity prices on the livelihood strategies of the poor
Overall task
To examine the
impact of rising prices on the poor between 2002 and 2008 and to predict likely
future scenarios for both urban and rural poor. Identify evidence for potential responses by JOHUD and partners .
Specific issues
Carry out a background data study into what key analysts are saying about the rises in prices - preferably with data up to 2007
and 2008
Source: MopIC, DoS, Bank of Jordan
Summary
Identifiy the most important indicators to track
Check with global / regional analysis - follow food
security / food riots in the region (Yemen, Egypt etc)
Check with the JAAH study on food security - based on VAM
adopted by WFP
Make the connection to micro-level research (Alia and housing,
Laura and access to credit, Tharwat and cost of marriage etc)
Hold some focus group discussions in poor urban communities
Consider the differential impact on urban and rural communities an especially on the people of the badia who depend on rural livelihoods
Review recent reports about 'get rich quick' investment opportunities for the poor and their likely impact in the medium to long term
Progress report
What I have achieved for myself
What my line manager says about my work
The most interesting parts of my internship so far
|
Background to the task set for me by JOHUD, based on NHDR 2004 analysis
Jordan is constrained by its vulnerability context - a
combination of the external environment with its shocks, trends and cycles, and
Jordan's limited and distorted asset base.
A series of external shocks has
depleted most of the reserves on which Jordan can fall back in times of stress. In response Jordan has adopted different policy / strategies in order to address
these challenges and promote development.
JOHUD wrote about this process in Chapter 2 of NHDR 2004
National data (as in HDI indicators and 2002 /3 poverty
data) appear to vindicate the government's assertion that, as a result of good policy
decisions they have managed to avoid the most negative impacts of shock. .
A contrasting analysis is that
macro-economic gains have been obtained at the price of micro level losses - and
these are mainly incurred by the poor.
Since 2002, the external environment has deteriorated. Shocks include the allied invasion of Iraq,
the arrival of displaced Iraqis the rise in price of oil on world market, the
removal of subsidy to fuel prices in Jordan, the recent rise in food process,
the impact of the new housing law due in 2010, coupled with a surge in demand
for housing (Iraqis) and the rise in cost of construction materials.
In mid-July,
it was revealed that inflation is currently 13% and rising. This is a major
increase (previously around 6%)
We imagine that the situation for the poor is
deteriorating. We want to know what's happening out ther.
If possible, we want to draft an 'Coping with shocks: 2002 - 2008' as an update on NHDR 2004 Chapter 2.
|
